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PRJ-2026-034At risk4ExecutionConstruction

Arar Vocational Qualification Centre

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A training and skills-test centre for the Northern Borders on land allocated by the municipality, with utilities and access roads.

Early warning: ⁦55%⁩ chance of slipping within ⁦60⁩ days

Budget (BAC)

SAR 238M

Actual cost

SAR 81.8M

⁦34%⁩ of budget

Progress

⁦33%⁩Awaiting acceptance ⁦12%⁩

Estimate at completion

SAR 247.9M

SAR +9.9M

SPI · CPI

0.89Schedule performance index · 0.890.96Cost performance index · 0.96

Forecast finish

⁦2027-09-28⁩

28 days behind baseline

ExecutionStage ⁦4⁩ of ⁦5⁩

Next gate:Closure29 June 2027

  1. Pre-start · CompletePre-start · Complete
  2. Gate into «Initiation»DecisionGoDate7 May 2025Initiation · CompleteInitiation · Complete
  3. Gate into «Planning»DecisionGoDate6 July 2025Planning · CompletePlanning · Complete
  4. Gate into «Execution»DecisionGoDate9 November 2025Execution · Current stageExecution · Current stage
  5. Gate into «Closure»DecisionNot held yetDate29 June 2027Closure · Not startedClosure · Not started

Finance & earned value

The full budget structure, cost broken down by eight dimensions, cash flow with its S-curve, and earned-value indicators with an automatic end-of-project forecast.

Budget anatomy

The approved SAR 238M split into spent, committed and left, with the estimate at completion

Forecast overrun SAR 9.9M
EAC SAR 247.9M
Revised request SAR 238M
  • Actual spendSAR 81.8M
  • Committed, not spentSAR 123.2M
  • Allotted, uncommittedSAR 25.9M
  • Contingency availableSAR 7.1M

Budget

EstimatedManualFrom the project proposal — not from the finance systemthe proposal’s cost before approval
SAR 204.7M
Original budgetwhen the first baseline was approved
SAR 238M
Approved budgetafter approved change requests
SAR 238M
Current budgetavailable to spend now
SAR 238M
Revised budgetif the pending changes are approved
SAR 238M

Commitments

CommitmentsSyncedFrom the nightly finance-system syncsigned contracts and purchase orders
SAR 205M
Contracts1 active contract
SAR 196M
Purchase orders⁦3⁩ orders
SAR 9M
Remaining budgetapproved less actual
SAR 156.2M

Spend & outlook

Actual costSyncedFrom the nightly finance-system syncincluding accruals
SAR 81.8M
Accrualswork done, not yet invoiced
SAR 3.3M
Estimate at completionManualThe project manager’s estimate — not from the finance systemthe PM’s bottom-up forecast
SAR 247.9M
ContingencySAR 4.8M drawn of SAR 11.9M
SAR 7.1M

Estimated vs approved budget

What the project proposal estimated before approval, against today’s approved budget and the estimate at completion

EstimatedSAR 204.7M
ApprovedSAR 238M
Estimate at completionSAR 247.9M
Approved is SAR 33.3M (⁦16.3%⁩) above the estimate
The estimate at completion is SAR 43.2M (⁦21.1%⁩) above the estimate

From the «project proposal & feasibility study» approved at the approval gate on ⁦2025-04-22⁩ · The gap between estimated and approved comes from the scope update and the change requests approved after the approval gate.

ERP link — data readiness

The link keys are ready for the finance-system sync; Munjaz follows the project and does not replace the accounting system

⁦4⁩ of ⁦4⁩ fields ready
  • Cost centreCC-51034
  • WBS elements⁦5⁩ elements · P-2026-034.01 …
  • Purchase orders⁦3⁩ synced · ⁦0⁩ manual
  • Invoices & certificates⁦6⁩ posted · ⁦1⁩ in approval
Last sync⁦2026-10-28⁩ · 06:00 · succeededNext tonight at 02:00

Where each figure comes from

  • EstimatedManualFrom the project proposal — not from the finance system
  • CommitmentsSyncedFrom the nightly finance-system sync
  • Actual costSyncedFrom the nightly finance-system sync
  • Estimate at completionManualThe project manager’s estimate — not from the finance system

Once the link is live, synced figures are read from the finance system; manual updates stay available to the same roles and are logged.

Purchase-order register

Manual edit log

Every manual update — who, when, why and from which source

No manual edits on this project

All its figures come from the finance-system sync. Finance & procurement — and the project manager, for the estimate at completion — can update them by hand.

Budget bridge

From the original to the revised request

  • Total
  • Increase
  • Decrease

Contingency draw-downs

SAR 4.8M drawn of SAR 11.9M

  • Covering realised delivery risks⁦2026-08-29⁩SAR 4.8M

Purchase orders

Cost breakdown structure

Every dimension adds up to the same totals

Cost breakdown structure — WBS
ItemBudgetSAR MCommittedSAR MActualSAR MEACSAR MVarianceSAR MConsumption
1Management & governance13.8514.9014.9014.90⁦−1.05⁩
2Design & permits27.7029.8029.8029.80⁦−2.10⁩
3Civil works87.7378.0837.1291.17⁦−3.44⁩
4MEP works69.2656.060.0073.97⁦−4.71⁩
5Handover32.3226.160.0034.52⁦−2.20⁩
Unallocated contingency7.140.000.003.57⁦+3.57⁩
Total238.00205.0081.81247.92⁦−9.92⁩

Budget split

WBS

SAR 238M

Budget

  • Management & governanceSAR 13.9M⁦6%⁩
  • Design & permitsSAR 27.7M⁦12%⁩
  • Civil worksSAR 87.7M⁦37%⁩
  • MEP worksSAR 69.3M⁦29%⁩
  • HandoverSAR 32.3M⁦14%⁩
  • Unallocated contingencySAR 7.1M⁦3%⁩

Cash flow

Planned, committed, actual and forecast

Spend per period

SAR millions

  • Planned
  • Actual
  • Forecast

Cumulative S-curve

Cumulative to close

  • Actual, then forecast
  • Planned, cumulative
  • Committed, cumulative
  • Forecast

Earned value management

At the data date ⁦2026-10-28⁩

Planned value, earned value and actual cost

  • Planned value
  • Earned value
  • Actual cost
  • Estimate at completion
  • Budget at completion

Finish by earned schedule

⁦2028-12-15⁩+472

SPI(t) ⁦0.63⁩ against the approved finish ⁦2027-08-31⁩

Planned valuePV
SAR 159.5M
The value of the work that should be done by today.
PV
Earned valueEV
SAR 78.5M
The value of the work actually done, at plan prices.
EV = % complete × BAC
Actual costAC
SAR 81.8M
What has actually been spent on the work done.
AC
Budget at completionBAC
SAR 238M
The approved budget for the whole project.
BAC
Cost varianceCV
⁦−3.27⁩ SAR M
Earned less actual; negative means paying more than the value.
CV = EV − AC
Schedule varianceSV
⁦−80.92⁩ SAR M
Earned less planned; negative means behind, in value.
SV = EV − PV
Cost performance indexCPI
0.96
Value produced per riyal spent; under 1 is an overrun.
CPI = EV ÷ AC
Schedule performance indexSPI
0.49
Work done over work planned; under 1 is behind.
SPI = EV ÷ PV
Estimate at completionEAC
SAR 247.9M
What the project will cost when it finishes, as forecast.
EAC = BAC ÷ CPI
Estimate to completeETC
SAR 166.1M
What is still to be spent to completion.
ETC = EAC − AC
Variance at completionVAC
⁦−9.92⁩ SAR M
Budget less the estimate; negative is an overrun.
VAC = BAC − EAC
To-complete performance indexTCPI
1.02
The cost efficiency the rest must reach to stay on budget.
TCPI = (BAC − EV) ÷ (BAC − AC)

Automatic end-of-project forecast

Four ways to estimate the final cost, and the date earned schedule points to

  • At today’s cost performanceSAR 247.9M
  • If the rest goes to planSAR 241.3M
  • At cost and schedule performanceSAR 419.1M
  • The PM’s bottom-up estimateSAR 247.9M
  • To stay within SAR 238M, cost performance on the rest must rise to ⁦1.02⁩ — above what has been achieved.

Estimate at completion at that performance

SAR 247.9M

Variance at completion: ⁦−9.92⁩ SAR M

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